New Orleans jailbreak: Crypto site lets users bet on next inmate capture

Jail worker arrested for helping inmates escape

A New Orleans jail maintenance worker has been arrested and is being held on a $1.1 million bond after confessing to disabling the water supply to a toilet that concealed a hole in a cell wall. This action facilitated the escape of 10 inmates, marking one of the largest jailbreaks in recent U.S. history.

A cryptocurrency-powered prediction site is allowing users to place real-money bets on which of the remaining New Orleans jail escapees will be captured by Friday.

The market, hosted by blockchain platform Polymarket, lists the names of five inmates who escaped from the Orleans Justice Center on May 16. As of Friday, May 23, more than $6,500 had been wagered. Each inmate is listed with dynamic odds based on trading activity, with users earning $1 per share if their chosen fugitive is caught by the deadline.

The wagers are part of a growing niche of speculative betting on real-world events—from elections to celebrity news.

Why are people betting on New Orleans fugitives?

The backstory:

Ten inmates escaped through a hole behind a toilet, sparking a citywide manhunt. Five were quickly recaptured, but five remain on the run. Authorities warned that the escapees should be considered "armed and dangerous." Among them is Derrick Groves, convicted of double murder in 2024. The others were awaiting trial on charges ranging from robbery to assault.

FILE - Law enforcement agencies working collectively to locate the inmates who escaped from the Orleans Parish Correctional Facility on May 16, 2025, have arrested a fifth fugitive in Louisiana, United States on May 20, 2025.  (Photo by Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Polymarket’s betting system uses cryptocurrency to allow users to buy and sell shares on outcomes. The more users bet on one result, the more expensive it becomes to buy, and vice versa. Users aren’t betting against the site—they’re betting against each other.

By the numbers:

As of Wednesday afternoon, here’s how much had been wagered on each fugitive and their perceived odds of recapture by 11:59 p.m. ET May 23:

• Antoine Massey: 32% chance, $1,408 wagered
• Leo Tate: 32% chance, $1,035 wagered
• Derrick Groves: 31% chance, $492 wagered
• Jermaine Donald: 29% chance, $1,042 wagered
• Lenton Vanburen: 25% chance, $1,619 wagered

The market rules say it will resolve based on confirmation from law enforcement that a suspect is physically placed in custody by the deadline.

What they're saying:

Polymarket posted Tuesday on X: "PRISONER PARLAYS? You can now bet on which inmates from the New Orleans jailbreak will be captured by Friday." The post gained over 980,000 views.

Louisiana State Police spokesperson Katharine Stegall told Newsweek earlier this week: "We have every intention to continue pushing forward with our law enforcement partners until each of the fugitives is back in custody."

Authorities have already made multiple arrests related to the escape. Jail employee Sterling Williams was charged Tuesday with aiding the breakout. Two more people—Cortnie Harris and Corvanntay Baptiste—were arrested Wednesday for allegedly transporting or feeding fugitives.

What's next:

Officials continue to investigate how the escape was organized. Orleans Parish Sheriff Susan Hutson has said she believes it was an inside job, and multiple staff members have been suspended.

While the betting market has amused some online, the situation remains serious. The escapees pose a public safety threat, and law enforcement agencies say they are treating the search with urgency.